input the number of daily trials I have, and then my retention rates for each renewal period. It then estimates what the active subscriber count would be at any particular point in time.

As you can see there is an asymptotic point in this for many configurations where your revenue hits a ceiling that you can’t escape from. This level is the manifestation of the “weight” of your churning users growing over time.

In the early days, growth is easy. You add new subscribers and the number of them easily overwhelms the number who are leaving. But eventually these numbers hit a point where they balance each other out and you reach an equilibrium.

The Tyranny of the Churn Equation
from David Smith favicon